Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 0.477551 0.549929 0.628146 0.718778 0.820717 0.931639 1.061278
2025-06-08 0.376880 0.473073 0.584846 0.723632 0.890594 1.084203 1.324868
2025-06-15 0.317454 0.431891 0.574076 0.762059 1.002183 1.296589 1.682542
2025-06-22 0.247387 0.365452 0.522430 0.743337 1.042554 1.429629 1.963338
2025-06-29 0.196912 0.315588 0.484200 0.736168 1.096939 1.587589 2.296286
2025-07-06 0.155513 0.270567 0.445198 0.721982 1.140083 1.736408 2.636166
2025-07-13 0.131733 0.247564 0.434498 0.747160 1.242791 1.980234 3.136429
2025-07-20 0.108089 0.219811 0.411661 0.750232 1.312996 2.185432 3.604654
2025-07-27 0.091514 0.200782 0.399832 0.769228 1.410755 2.443354 4.180147
2025-08-03 0.077979 0.184350 0.389585 0.789285 1.512894 2.719339 4.812455
2025-08-10 0.061660 0.158239 0.356578 0.763336 1.532805 2.863835 5.248585
2025-08-17 0.047823 0.133628 0.321465 0.727299 1.529357 2.967999 5.627773
2025-08-24 0.038889 0.118194 0.302959 0.722669 1.587318 3.191961 6.246660
2025-08-31 0.031241 0.103549 0.283040 0.711797 1.632195 3.398345 6.857552
2025-09-07 0.027030 0.096787 0.279875 0.736730 1.752690 3.758384 7.782226
2025-09-14 0.020991 0.082524 0.255142 0.708580 1.759243 3.902519 8.322226
2025-09-21 0.016745 0.072091 0.237576 0.693890 1.792556 4.102653 8.988052
2025-09-28 0.013195 0.062419 0.219500 0.674341 1.812083 4.276891 9.619896
2025-10-05 0.011402 0.058367 0.216520 0.693079 1.922451 4.650213 10.680598
2025-10-12 0.009415 0.052600 0.206824 0.691988 1.985490 4.929337 11.573873
2025-10-19 0.008085 0.048960 0.202944 0.706457 2.088843 5.306352 12.702203
2025-10-26 0.006980 0.045778 0.199764 0.722442 2.198306 5.707435 13.913958
2025-11-02 0.005435 0.039465 0.183675 0.696408 2.195077 5.852470 14.586850